Revolut has been sitting on my “write this up already” list for ages. But with 53 million users, a shiny new UK banking license, and IPO buzz building, now feels like the moment.

If you’re in Europe, chances are you’ve used it – or know someone who swears by it. If you’re in the US, it’s one to keep on your radar. Revolut’s on track to become one of the world’s most valuable neobanks. And if it goes public, it won’t be just another ticker symbol: it’ll be a rare chance to invest in a fintech that retail investors actually use.

So I ran the numbers, dug through the revenue, unpacked the risks, and assessed whether the Revolut excitement is justified – or overblown.

Part 1: How Revolut makes money

​Revolut is a neobank, which means it’s essentially a digital-only financial platform that lives on your phone. And it can do most of your money stuff: everyday payments, saving, stock trading, even crypto – all without a single physical branch. It’s privately owned, and while it’s expected to make its stock debut this year, that initial public offering (IPO) isn’t on the calendar just yet.

Revolut holds a full banking license in the European Union, and it more recently got one in the UK, too. Right now, it’s currently in the mobilization phase in Britain – essentially a ramp-up period before it rolls out full regulated lending and deposit services in its home market. Once that’s done, Revolut will operate as a full-scale bank on both sides of the English Channel.

So those are the two biggest markets: around 68% of the company’s revenue comes from Europe, and another big chunk comes from Britain. The US, Brazil, and Australia make up another small but growing portion.

Revenue income falls into a few big buckets:

Interest income. Revolut’s made a major push into lending – including personal loans, credit cards, and (soon) mortgages and business credit – so interest income is now the biggest contributor to overall revenue. And as banking licenses expand and deposit bases grow, so will Revolut’s ability to earn from interest spreads. It’s a capital-intensive segment, but it’s also the one most aligned with Revolut’s long-term ambitions of becoming a full-spectrum bank.

Cards and payments. A steady workhorse. Revolut earns every time users spend – whether it’s businesses using merchant services or consumers paying with credit cards. Payments are a reliable revenue stream, especially as business accounts grow, but the margins here are thinner here than, say, in lending.

Wealth and trading. Users can trade stocks, crypto, and commodities directly through the app. Revolut makes money via small commissions or spreads. This area’s exciting – and growing fast – but it’s also volatile and cyclical since it’s so closely linked to market mood. That said, as Revolut adds more investment products, this remains a high-potential category.

Subscriptions. Paid plans like Plus, Premium, and Metal are about perks – and profit. For users, the subscriptions come with benefits like cashback, lounge access, and better foreign exchange trading rates. For the company, they boast strong unit economics and low servicing costs, which puts this segment among the firm’s most profitable. As the user base scales, even a modest uptick in conversion to paid plans could drive hundreds of millions in recurring income.

Foreign exchange (FX) and transfers. Foreign exchange is where Revolut started – and it still matters. The company earns from spreads (i.e., the difference between the bid price and the ask price), particularly when users exceed their free limits or trade on weekends. FX may be less flashy than other segments, but it’s a dependable pillar.

Revolut’s product mix, as of last year. Source: Revolut.

Part 2: What drives Revolut’s growth

The London-based Revolut isn’t just growing fast – it’s growing everywhere. Its user base is expanding, its products are multiplying, and its global footprint is getting bigger and bigger. Let’s check those out one by one.

First up, user growth. The fintech hit 53 million users by the end of 2024, a 38% jump from the year before and a new personal best. So now it’s got a new goal: 100 million users by 2027, with markets like India and Mexico expected to drive the next wave. Impressively, most of this growth has been coming via word-of-mouth, though a few paid ads have been making hay, too.

Number of registered Revolut users (in millions) over time. Source: Revolut.

Next up, geographic expansion. Europe is the home base, but Revolut’s next chapter is global. It’s chasing ten new licenses to enter high-growth markets across Latin America and Asia. Europe is the home base, but Revolut’s next chapter is global. It’s chasing ten new licenses to enter high-growth markets across Latin America and Asia. Anthony Disanto a keen follower of Revolut is quoted “if successful, the firm could replicate the playbook of giants like Nubank” Nubank has over 100 million users across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia alone. The key would be to scale fast, navigate regulations, deliver what each market needs, and become a trusted household name. Not easy, but if Revolut gets it right, the payoff could be enormous.

And, last product growth. This breaks down into a few categories.

• Crypto and trading. Revolut’s investment products have exploded, with crypto trading fees alone now holding court as the firm’s third-biggest revenue stream. Over the next three years, Revolut plans to broaden its investment menu with more assets (more stocks, more bonds, more funds) to create a bigger buffet for investors and to smooth out any potential revenue fluctuations.
• Banking and lending. Loans are already live across Europe, credit cards have launched in Ireland and Spain, and mortgages, business lending, and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) for merchants are in the works for this year – and those are some higher-margin areas with strong money-making potential. What’s more, with new banking licenses set to roll out in Mexico and (possibly) India, the firm will gain the regulatory footing to scale interest income across more places. That’s all guiding the firm toward that north star: becoming a full-spectrum digital bank.
• Business accounts (B2B services). Revolut Business has been helping the firm diversify beyond retail customers – offering multi-currency accounts, corporate cards, merchant tools, and soon, business credit lines and high-yield savings. Revolut only recently entered Brazil, where small and medium-sized enterprises have huge demand for modern fintech solutions, but over the next three years, this B2B segment could grow to 20% (or more) of the firm’s total revenue. Of course, that will depend on Revolut’s ability to win over the market’s bigger, faster-scaling fish.
• Subscriptions and premium accounts. Remember, this revenue stream is a sleeping giant. If Revolut reaches 80 million users by 2027 and converts just 20% of the newcomers to paid plans that cost £8 to £10 per month, it could generate £500 million ($668 million) in annual income.

New money-making plays. Like your competitive sibling when the Monopoly board comes out, Revolut wants to be more than just a banker: it’s got a whole business strategy. It’s experimenting with in-app advertising – leveraging its data and engagement insights to open up a tech-style revenue source. Success depends on user tolerance, but the ambition is clear. It’s aiming to be a financial “super app” with multiple money-making layers.

Part 3: Making “cents” of Revolut’s financials

Revolut is still a private company, which means there are no Wall Street forecasts or formal earnings guidance to lean on. But that doesn’t mean we’re flying blind. With a bit of detective work (picking up clues from past performance, management hints, and peer comps), we can sketch a pretty clear picture.

The table below breaks down what Revolut’s already done and where it could be heading through 2027 – all in both pounds and greenbacks (assuming a steady exchange rate where a single British pound buys $1.25).

Summary of Revolut’s historical and projected revenue and net profit over time. Source: Revolut, Finimize.

Revolut’s revenue nearly doubled in 2023 from the year before to £1.8 billion, then jumped another 72% in 2024 to £3.1 billion. Net profit rose from £344 million to £790 million, fattening margins from 19% to 26%. This blast was fueled by rapid user growth, rising revenue per user, and some favorable big-picture conditions – especially higher interest rates, which boosted income from deposits and lending. Subscriptions, credit card spending, and trading activity also scaled up in a big way. And profitability improved a lot as Revolut gained operating leverage, with high-margin revenue growing faster than its fixed costs.

The question is whether Revolut can hold on to its current margins. See, its interest income could slide if central banks lower their key lending rates, bringing pressure down from on high. That could make things really tight: Revolut has been spending heavily – hiring talent, expanding into new markets, navigating tricky regulatory terrain. Still, there’s strength in this firm’s three-pronged model: a growing user base, a broad product mix, and a growing global footprint. If the macroeconomic picture doesn’t change too much, a profit margin in the mid-20s doesn’t just seem possible – it looks well within reach.

Revolut’s growth and profitability over time. Source: Revolut.

For 2025, it’s fair to assume that Revolut will maintain strong momentum but with slightly slower growth. And that being the case, I project revenue of £4.6 billion (up 50%) and net profit of around £1.2 billion, which implies a 27% margin. That reflects continued user growth, product adoption, and modest easing of those interest rate challenges. And it also assumes that the new banking license in the UK will widen some revenue streams this year, particularly as Revolut begins to scale its lending and deposit products right there in its own backyard.

For 2026 and 2027, I assume a natural slowdown in growth rates – that’s normal as a business matures. My model applies revenue growth of 35% in 2026 and 25% in 2027, with net margins holding around 25% to 27%. This implies that net profit will rise to £2 billion by 2027. And, yes, Revolut is likely to continue investing heavily in its expansion, but those splendid efficiencies of scale should still keep its profitability sturdy.

Now, let’s be clear: these projections represent a basic set of assumptions – not a detailed financial model. That said, they do offer an informed, useful back-of-the-envelope view of where Revolut could head over the next few years. For example, it could see serious upside from faster international adoption or new product monetization (e.g. mortgages, loyalty incentives, ads). Or it could see serious downside from macroeconomic shocks or slower-than-expected take-up in key growth markets.

Personally, I expect Revolut’s revenue and net income to roughly double between 2024 and 2027, maintaining solid profitability even as top-line growth cools. Whether that pace proves sustainable will depend on how well the company executes across products and geographies.

Part 4: What Revolut is worth

Revolut’s valuation has been a hot topic – and for good reason. It’s still private, but it’s also Europe’s most valuable tech unicorn and one of the most closely watched fintechs in the world. So let’s check out Revolut’s valuation from two angles.

First, let’s examine how it compares to some listed fintech peers, and then let’s see what a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests about its intrinsic value.

Peer valuation comparison

Since Revolut isn’t publicly traded, its valuation is roughly inferred from recent funding rounds and secondary sales (that’s when employees and other early stakeholders sell their private shares). The table below summarizes the key valuation metrics relative to two of its well-known (and listed) peers, Nubank (Nu Holdings) and PayPal.

How Revolut’s implied valuation compares to the valuations of Nubank and PayPal based on Price-To-Earnings (Trailing Twelve Months), Price-To-Book, and Return On Equity. Sources: Revolut, Koyfin.

Revolut’s implied price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x shows just how fast this company is growing. After all, that’s a lot higher than Nubank’s 21x and nearly double PayPal’s 15x, which tells you that investors would be willing to pay more for its shares just to get in on the earnings acceleration that’s expected. But, look, it’s common for high-growth fintechs to see some lofty multiples while their profitability scales. The problem is, that premium embeds expectations that can be difficult to sustain when growth (inevitably) slows.

Revolut’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio tells a similar story, sitting at a rich 14x. Revolut’s higher P/B is partly due to its asset-light, no-bank-branch model and high return on equity, but it still implies that any slack in profitability could make the multiple appear stretched.

Revolut’s customers and revenue versus peers (2024). Source: Company data.

Revolut’s net profit and profit margin versus peers (2024). Source: Company data.

Revolut’s average revenue per customer and market valuation versus peers (2024). Source: Company data.

Nubank and Revolut may be in the same valuation ballpark – around $60 billion and $45 billion, respectively – but their businesses are at very different stages. Nubank is currently the bigger beast, pulling in $11.5 billion in 2024 revenue with 115 million customers, while Revolut trails way behind with $4 billion and 52.5 million users. Still, the market is clearly willing to pay up for Revolut’s future. And that’s because it’s a bet on premium growth. Revolut’s edge lies in its exposure to wealthier, developed markets and more diverse, higher-yielding revenue streams. Nubank’s valuation, though hefty, is likely weighed down by its emerging-market roots, where investors typically apply more conservative multiples. In essence, the market sees Revolut not just as a fast grower, but also as a fintech with higher-quality fuel in the tank.

That said, the valuation gap also implies that there’s limited margin for error. In my view, it’s not unreasonable for Revolut to trade at a premium to Nubank, provided it continues to outpace on both earnings growth and market expansion. While Nubank has a bigger footprint and posted about $2 billion in profit last year, Revolut is growing from a smaller base and has delivered margin expansion alongside some 70-plus percent revenue growth in recent years. Its 2024 net margin was about 26%, versus Nubank’s 17% to 20%, suggesting Revolut is currently more efficient on a per-dollar basis – albeit with more variability ahead.

DCF valuation comparison

To figure out what Revolut should be worth, I built a basic discounted cash flow (DCF) model using projected net income as a stand-in for free cash flow (FCF), assuming Revolut converts a hefty chunk of its profits into cash. My model assumes:

• Revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2030 tapering from 50% to 10%
• Net margins of 25% to 28%
• Terminal growth of 3%
• A discount rate of 12%, reflecting Revolut’s profile as a profitable but still high-risk fintech

Simple discounted cash flow assumption for Revolut. Source: Finimize.

And, drum roll, please: I got an estimated valuation of about $29 billion – which is 30% to 40% below Revolut’s current implied price tag of $45 billion. So that tells me that either the market is expecting faster growth than I am, or it’s using a lower discount rate. So I played around with the assumptions and found that if I use a 9% discount rate instead of 12%, it raises the DCF valuation closer to $45 billion, implying that the current valuation can be justified, but under a rosier set of assumptions. You can see the financials in the link here. And if you make a copy of the template, you can make changes to reflect your own forward estimates.

It’s true that my base-case DCF suggests that Revolut’s current valuation is too high compared to its intrinsic value, but that gap could close if growth stays strong or if the cost of lending declines. Revolut has been growing into its valuation, after all, with revenue multiples that have been declining over time. That’s a healthy sign, though the valuation will still require that the company dependably live up to expectations.

In essence: Revolut is priced more like a high-growth tech company than a traditional bank. It has higher growth and ROE, but also a richer valuation compared to Nubank or PayPal. If Revolut continues to scale in developed markets and improve monetization across its platform, the premium could stick. But that’s a pretty good-sized if.

Bottom line: Revolut’s price tag is steep – but it’s not irrational. My DCF model says it’s a bit overvalued, based on mid-range assumptions, but with growth this peppy, a few tweaks to the forecast can swing the intrinsic value by a lot. The big question isn’t just about valuation: it’s about whether Revolut can become a truly international financial platform with sustainable profits. If it can pull that off, investors will line up to invest.

Part 5: What could stand in its way

Investing in Revolut means buying into a high-growth, high-expectation fintech – and that comes with meaningful risks. In this final section, let’s look at some of them.

Regulatory risk. Revolut operates under a patchwork of licenses across the UK, EU, US, and beyond. While it has secured a UK banking license in principle, it’s still in the mobilization phase and will have to live up to some strict ongoing requirements. Any compliance failures – whether in anti-money-laundering, consumer protection, or operational resilience – could lead to fines, restrictions, or reputational damage.

Competitive risk. Revolut is squaring off against aggressive fintech rivals and some digitally savvy traditional banks. Sustaining growth could require escalating marketing spend and doling out generous incentives – and those things could pressure margins and hurt profitability.

Profitability risk. A big share of Revolut’s recent earnings came from interest income on customer deposits, in what’s been a high-interest-rate environment. As rates fall, that revenue stream could shrink. And its newer ventures – like lending and crypto – are still volatile and unproven at scale.

Valuation risk. Revolut’s $45 billion valuation reflects sky-high expectations for long-term growth and money-making. If performance stumbles or market sentiment shifts, that premium could unwind really quickly – especially post-IPO.

Operational risk. Managing a global platform with 50 million users (and counting) requires seamless infrastructure, strong compliance systems, and tip-top customer support. Any prolonged outages, service failures, or data breaches could quickly erode consumer trust – and invite regulatory scrutiny.